Importance

October 22, 2003

Keep a Close Watch on Ex-Servicemen

Bruce Scheier, one of the world's leading cryptography and security experts, has an op-ed on Newsday.com pointing out the foibles of mass terrorist screening at airports and the like (Terror Profiles By Computers Are Ineffective). As an ex-military type myself, the example he used of bogus screening criteria hits close to home:

I have an idea. Timothy McVeigh and John Allen Muhammad - one of the accused D.C. snipers - both served in the military. I think we need to put all U.S. ex-servicemen on a special watch list, because they obviously could be terrorists. I think we should flag them for "special screening" when they fly and think twice before allowing them to take scuba-diving lessons.
Posted by Ernest at 10:08 AM
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Schneier's argument is bolstered by the simple, elegant, and compelling mathematical analysis done by Temple University mathematician John Allen Paulos, in the January 2003 installment of his column "Who's Counting?." The article, "Future World: Privacy, Terrorists, and Science Fiction," (http://more.abcnews.go.com/sections/scitech/WhosCounting/whoscounting030105.html) assumes that a project such as the recently de-funded Terrorist Information Awareness program (née "Total Information Awareness"), has succeeded beyond the wildest dreams of its founders by 2054, the year when the film Minority Report is set. This hypothetical program has a predictive success rate of 99%. Examining this number and assuming that the U.S. has 300 million citizens, Paulos proves that it would imprison just under 1,000 terrorists and just under 3 million innocent people.

Posted by Dan Fingerman on October 22, 2003 10:24 PM | Permalink to Comment

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